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Key Concepts

ROI (Return on Investment)

/ar-oh-eye/

The +EV Bets TeamJanuary 14, 2025
Definition
ROI measures your profit as a percentage of total money wagered. It\'s calculated as (Profit / Total Wagered) x 100. A 5% ROI means you profit $5 for every $100 bet. ROI is the standard metric for comparing betting performance across different bankroll sizes and time periods because it normalizes results regardless of how much money is being wagered. Unlike raw profit numbers, ROI allows you to objectively compare a bettor risking $500 per month to one risking $50,000 per month on an equal footing, making it the most widely used measure of betting skill.
Example

You\'ve wagered $50,000 this season across 500 bets and profited $2,500. Your ROI is 2,500 / 50,000 = 5%. That\'s excellent by professional standards, where most successful bettors achieve 2-5% ROI long-term. To put this in perspective, if another bettor wagered $10,000 and profited $300, their ROI is 3%. Even though they made less money in absolute terms, both bettors are performing at a professional level. ROI helps you evaluate whether your strategy is working independent of your bankroll size.

Common Questions

Anything positive over a meaningful sample size means you're beating the sportsbooks, which puts you ahead of the vast majority of bettors. An ROI of 2-5% is considered solid professional-level performance and is what most successful full-time bettors sustain over years of wagering. An ROI above 5% is exceptional and difficult to maintain at high volume. Be skeptical of anyone claiming 10%+ ROI over thousands of bets, as that level of sustained performance is extremely rare and often indicates a small or cherry-picked sample.

Win rate alone ignores the odds at which you're betting, which makes it an incomplete measure of performance. A 55% win rate at -110 odds is profitable, generating roughly 2.3% ROI. But that same 55% win rate at -150 odds actually loses money because you're laying too much juice. ROI captures the complete picture of your performance by factoring in the odds, the vig, and your bet sizing. It tells you the bottom line: how much profit you're generating per dollar wagered, regardless of whether you're betting favorites, underdogs, or a mix of both.

You generally need at least 500 to 1,000 tracked bets before your ROI becomes a reliable indicator of skill rather than luck. Over a small sample of 50 or 100 bets, variance can easily distort your results in either direction. A bettor could have a 10% ROI over 100 bets purely due to luck, or a skilled bettor could show a negative ROI over the same sample due to an unlucky streak. The larger your sample size, the more your actual ROI converges toward your true edge. Professional bettors evaluate their performance over thousands of bets and multiple seasons.

The most impactful way to improve your ROI is line shopping, which means comparing odds across multiple sportsbooks and always placing your bet at the best available price. Getting -108 instead of -110 on every bet can meaningfully improve your ROI over hundreds of wagers. Beyond that, focus on markets where you have the most expertise, avoid betting on impulse without an identified edge, track all of your bets meticulously, and use proper bankroll management to stay in action long enough for your edge to play out. Reviewing your past bets regularly to identify which sports, bet types, and situations produce your highest ROI can also help you allocate your bankroll more effectively going forward.

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