Can You Actually Make Money Sports Betting?
The math behind profitable betting and why only 2-3% of bettors win long-term
8 min read
The Short Answer
Yes, you can make money sports betting—but most people don't. Industry data consistently shows that only 2-3% of sports bettors are profitable over the long term. The other 97% lose money.
The difference between winners and losers isn't luck, insider information, or "knowing sports." It's math. Profitable bettors consistently find and bet on positive expected value (+EV) opportunities where the true probability of winning exceeds what the odds imply.
Why 97% of Sports Bettors Lose Money
Before understanding how to win, you need to understand why most people lose. There are several structural and behavioral reasons:
1. The Vig (House Edge)
At standard -110 odds, you must win 52.38% of your bets just to break even. This built-in commission means that simply picking winners at a 50% rate guarantees long-term losses. Learn more about how the vig works.
2. Emotional Betting
Betting on your favorite team, chasing losses after a bad beat, or increasing bet sizes when on a "hot streak" are all recipes for disaster. Emotions override logic and lead to -EV decisions.
3. No Edge
Most bettors pick games based on gut feelings, team loyalty, or surface-level analysis. Without a systematic way to identify mispriced odds, you're essentially gambling—not investing.
4. Poor Bankroll Management
Betting too much per game, not tracking results, and failing to survive inevitable losing streaks. Even with an edge, bad money management can wipe out your bankroll. See our bankroll management guide.
How the Profitable 3% Actually Win
The small percentage of winning bettors share common traits and strategies. Here's what separates them from the losing majority:
They Bet Positive Expected Value (+EV)
The single most important concept in profitable betting is Expected Value. A +EV bet is one where the true probability of winning exceeds the implied probability from the odds.
Example: Finding a +EV Bet
• Sportsbook offers Team A at +150 (implied 40% win probability)
• Your analysis shows Team A actually has a 50% chance to win
• This is a +EV bet: you're getting 40% odds on a 50% proposition
• Over time, consistently betting situations like this generates profit
Learn more about what expected value means and how to calculate it.
They Use Data, Not Gut Feelings
Sharp bettors don't bet on teams they "like" or games they "feel good about." They use statistical models, closing line value analysis, and tools that identify where sportsbooks have mispriced the odds. Our guide to data-driven betting explains the approach.
They Practice Strict Bankroll Management
Professional bettors typically risk only 1-3% of their bankroll per bet. This allows them to survive losing streaks (which happen to everyone) and compound their gains over time. The Kelly Criterion provides a mathematical framework for optimal bet sizing.
They Think Long-Term
Winning bettors understand that individual bets don't matter—what matters is making +EV decisions consistently over thousands of bets. They don't chase losses, don't get emotional about bad beats, and don't deviate from their system.
Realistic Profit Expectations
Let's set realistic expectations for what profitable sports betting looks like:
54-56%
Typical win rate for professional bettors at -110 odds
2-5%
Expected ROI on total betting volume for sharp bettors
1000+
Bets needed before results become statistically meaningful
Example scenario: With a $5,000 bankroll, betting 2% per game ($100 average), placing 500 bets per year at a 55% win rate and -110 odds:
- Win 275 bets × $91 profit = $25,025
- Lose 225 bets × $100 loss = $22,500
- Net profit: $2,525 (≈5% ROI on $50,000 wagered)
How +EV Bets Helps You Join the Profitable 3%
Finding +EV opportunities manually requires hours of research, line comparison, and probability modeling. +EV Bets automates this process using the FairLine™ algorithm:
FairLine™ Algorithm
Calculates true win probability by removing the vig from market odds
Real-Time Odds Comparison
Side-by-side FanDuel and DraftKings odds with EV% calculated
Tap to Bet
One-click execution on FanDuel/DraftKings—no missed lines
Free Forever Tier
5 +EV picks daily with no credit card required
Ready to Bet With an Edge?
Join the 3% of profitable bettors. Get 5 free +EV picks daily—no credit card required.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can you actually make money sports betting?
Yes, but only about 2-3% of sports bettors are profitable long-term. The key is betting with positive expected value (+EV), which means finding bets where the true probability of winning exceeds what the odds imply. This requires discipline, proper bankroll management, and tools to identify mispriced lines.
How much can you realistically make sports betting?
Professional sports bettors typically aim for 2-5% ROI on their total betting volume. With a $10,000 bankroll betting $50,000 annually, that translates to $1,000-$2,500 profit. Most recreational bettors lose money, which is why finding +EV opportunities is essential for profitability.
Why do most sports bettors lose money?
Most bettors lose because of the vig (sportsbook commission), emotional betting, poor bankroll management, and betting without an edge. At standard -110 odds, you need to win 52.38% of bets just to break even. Without a systematic approach to finding value, the math works against you.
What percentage of sports bets do you need to win to be profitable?
At standard -110 odds, you need to win 52.38% of your bets to break even. To be meaningfully profitable, most sharp bettors aim for 54-56% win rates. Even a 55% win rate can generate significant profits over thousands of bets with proper bankroll management.
Is sports betting a good way to make money?
Sports betting should not be viewed as a primary income source for most people. While profitable betting is possible with +EV strategies, it requires significant time investment, discipline, and capital. It's best approached as a supplement to other income, with money you can afford to lose.