Calculate EV Like a Pro in 5 Minutes
Master the simple math that separates winning bettors from the rest
5 minute read
Mastering Expected Value (EV) calculation is the foundation of profitable sports betting. This skill separates serious bettors from casual gamblers, helping you identify opportunities where the odds are in your favor. When you can accurately calculate EV, you transform betting from guesswork into a data-driven strategy with measurable long-term potential.
Whether you're betting moneylines, point spreads, or totals, EV calculation principles remain consistent. This guide provides step-by-step instructions for calculating expected value across all bet types, plus real-world examples to solidify your understanding. Combined with proper bankroll management, these skills form the core of any successful betting strategy.
Professional bettors use EV calculations to evaluate opportunities across NFL, NBA, MLB, and other major sports markets. Before diving into the calculations, make sure you understand what expected value means and learn to avoid common EV mistakes that can undermine your analysis.
EV = (Probability of Winning × Potential Profit) - (Probability of Losing × Stake)
This simple formula is the key to profitable betting decisions
Calculate EV in 5 Simple Steps
Find the True Probability
Determine what you believe is the actual probability of your bet winning. This could be based on your research, models, or analysis. For example, if you think a team has a 60% chance of winning, your true probability is 0.60.
Example: After analyzing stats, you believe the Boston Celtics have a 55% chance to win against the Lakers. Your true probability is 0.55.
Determine Your Stake
This is how much money you're planning to bet. For simplicity, we'll use $100 in our examples, but you can use any amount that fits your bankroll management strategy.
Example: You decide to stake $100 on the Celtics.
Calculate Potential Profit
Based on the odds, how much would you win if your bet is successful? For American odds:
For positive odds (+150, +200, etc.): Stake × (Odds ÷ 100)
For negative odds (-110, -200, etc.): Stake × (100 ÷ |Odds|)
Example: The Celtics are at -110 odds. Your potential profit would be $100 × (100 ÷ 110) = $90.91
Apply the EV Formula
Now plug everything into the formula:
EV = (Probability of Winning × Potential Profit) - (Probability of Losing × Stake)
Probability of Losing = 1 - Probability of Winning
Example: EV = (0.55 × $90.91) - (0.45 × $100)
EV = $50 - $45 = $5
Interpret the Result
If your EV is positive, the bet has positive expected value (+EV), meaning it's profitable in the long run. If negative, it's a -EV bet that will lose money over time.
- Positive EV: Make the bet
Over time, these bets will be profitable
- Negative EV: Skip the bet
Over time, these bets will lose money
Example: Your EV is $5 on a $100 bet (5% return). This is a +EV bet, so it's worth making!
Skip the Math, Use Our Calculator
Don't want to do these calculations manually? Our EV calculator does the work for you.
Try Our EV CalculatorPro Tips for EV Calculation
- Be honest about your estimated probabilities. Overconfidence is a common mistake.
- Even small edges (1-3%) can be profitable over time with proper bankroll management.
- Always 'line shop' between different sportsbooks to find the best odds, which improves your EV.
- Use the Kelly Criterion to optimize bet sizing based on your edge and bankroll.
Learn more about Kelly Criterion betting for advanced bankroll optimization.
- Track your results and adjust probability estimates based on performance.
Avoid common bankroll mistakes that undermine long-term success.
- Consider using data science approaches to improve probability estimation.
Discover how data science powers EV betting and learn to spot mispriced odds.
How to Identify +EV Bets
In sports betting, the pursuit of +EV (positive expected value) bets is akin to finding gold—crucial for sharp bettors aiming for long-term success. +EV bets occur when the potential profit from a bet is greater than the actual probability of a sports outcome occurring. To spot these opportunities, it's vital to understand how to analyze odds and lines, utilize implied probability, and skillfully calculate expected value. By mastering these fundamentals, you'll be better positioned to make smart betting decisions that grow your bankroll over time.
Analyzing Odds and Lines
When discussing +EV bets, understanding American odds is essential. These odds can be expressed as either positive or negative numbers. For example, +120 in betting terms means for every $100 you wager, you could earn a potential profit of $120 if the bet wins. Conversely, -110 odds suggest you need to bet $110 to win $100. Analyzing these betting odds is a critical skill for identifying +EV bets. The ability to interpret and compare sportsbook odds across betting markets allows bettors to pinpoint profitable bets where the implied probability is in their favor.
Utilizing Implied Probability
Implied probability is a key concept in betting that translates odds into the likelihood of a particular outcome. Using American odds, you can calculate implied probability to determine if a wager is fair. For instance, a +120 odds implies an approximate 45.5% chance of winning. If you assess the actual probability of the outcome to be greater than this, you have found a +EV bet. By converting odds to implied probabilities, sports bettors can evaluate whether a bookmaker has underestimated the likelihood of an event, thereby presenting a valuable betting opportunity.
Implied Probability (negative odds): -odds / (-odds + 100)
Implied Probability (positive odds): 100 / (odds + 100)
Step-by-Step Calculation Process
Calculating expected value (EV) in sports betting is a straightforward process. Start by determining the probabilities associated with a given betting line, then convert these odds into implied probabilities. Next, take the expected profit if the bet wins, deduct the initial stake, and multiply it by your calculated probability of winning. Finally, apply the probability of losing to the amount wagered, subtracting this from your potential winnings to compute the EV. This method helps in assessing whether a bet is worthwhile, ensuring that each wager placed is a step toward long-term profit.
Useful Tools for EV Calculation
For those who want to perform EV calculations quickly, there are several useful tools available. For beginners, our EV calculator tool simplifies the process by inputting odds and calculating expected value instantly. This tool is invaluable for those looking to make informed betting decisions without delving deep into mathematical complexities. For a more comprehensive understanding and strategic insights, the beginner's guide to positive expected value betting offers a wealth of information. Utilizing these tools can significantly enhance the ability to identify +EV bets, supporting both casual and sharp bettors in their quest for consistent, data-driven profits.
Ready to Start Calculating EV?
That's it! You now know how to calculate expected value like a professional bettor. Remember, the key to long-term betting success isn't picking winners—it's consistently finding positive expected value. By spending just a few minutes to calculate EV before placing bets, you'll make more profitable decisions over time.
For a deeper understanding of expected value in sports betting, check out our comprehensive guide to positive EV betting, or if you're just getting started, read what is expected value in sports betting.
Put Your Knowledge Into Practice
Use our EV Calculator to analyze your next potential bet
Use EV Calculator