Edge is the mathematical advantage you have over the sportsbook on a particular bet. When you have an edge, the true probability of an outcome occurring is higher than what the sportsbook\'s odds imply, meaning you\'re getting a better price than the bet is actually worth. Edge is typically expressed as a percentage and is synonymous with positive expected value (+EV). Understanding and identifying edge is the single most important concept in profitable sports betting, because without a consistent edge, no staking strategy or bankroll management system can turn a losing approach into a winning one over the long run.
Example
A sportsbook offers +200 on a team, implying a 33.3% win probability. Your analysis shows they actually have a 40% chance of winning. Your edge is 40% - 33.3% = 6.7%. This 6.7% advantage means every $100 bet has +$6.70 in expected value. In another scenario, you find a player prop at -120 (implied 54.5%) while sharp consensus and your model both project a 62% probability. That gives you a 7.5% edge, making it a strong bet even though you\'re laying juice.
Common Questions
How do I find edges in sports betting?
How do I find edges in sports betting?
Compare sportsbook odds to sharp market prices at pinnacle or other respected books, build your own statistical models, specialize in niche markets where sportsbooks dedicate fewer resources to setting lines, or use tools that identify mispriced lines across multiple books. The key is finding situations where your estimated probability of an outcome meaningfully differs from what the market implies. Shopping for the best odds across sportsbooks also increases the size of your edge on every bet.
How big of an edge do I need?
How big of an edge do I need?
Any edge over 1-2% can be profitable long-term if you maintain sufficient betting volume. Sharp bettors often work with edges of 2-5%, which is considered excellent. The larger your edge, the fewer bets you need to overcome short-term variance and reach your expected profit. Smaller edges require more disciplined bankroll management and higher volume to realize their value, while larger edges provide a bigger cushion against losing streaks and allow for faster bankroll growth.
Do edges disappear over time?
Do edges disappear over time?
Yes, specific edges often get corrected as the betting market becomes more efficient. Sportsbooks adjust their lines based on sharp action, and once enough money flows to the correct side, the mispricing closes. That's why sharp bettors continuously seek new edges and bet early before lines move. Sustainable edges require ongoing effort, constant refinement of your models, and the ability to adapt as the market evolves. Some structural edges, like exploiting slow-moving books or specific prop markets, can last longer than others.
What is the difference between edge and expected value?
What is the difference between edge and expected value?
Edge and expected value are closely related but measure slightly different things. Edge refers to the percentage advantage you have, which is the gap between the true probability and the implied probability from the odds. Expected value (EV) is the dollar amount you expect to profit per bet based on that edge. For example, a 5% edge on a $100 bet gives you +$5 in expected value. Edge describes your advantage in relative terms, while EV translates it into concrete monetary terms based on your stake size.