About +EV Bets
Data-driven sports betting analytics built for long-term edges
+EV Bets is a sports betting analytics platform designed to help bettors make better decisions by identifying positive expected value (+EV) opportunities. The platform combines proprietary probability benchmarks with real-time market odds to surface wagers where price and probability diverge.
Rather than maximizing bet volume, +EV Bets prioritizes accuracy, transparency, and discipline — the foundations of sustainable betting.
Our Mission
Sports betting markets are fast, noisy, and often misleading.
+EV Bets exists to bring clarity.
Our mission is to help bettors make repeatable, informed decisions by grounding every opportunity in sound probability, market awareness, and rigorous evaluation. We believe fewer, higher-quality bets outperform constant action over the long run.
What Is +EV?
Positive Expected Value (+EV) refers to bets where the true probability of winning exceeds the probability implied by the sportsbook odds.
In practical terms, +EV bets offer a favorable risk-reward tradeoff — even if individual results vary. Over time, consistently betting +EV opportunities is the only mathematically sound path to long-term profitability.
+EV Bets identifies these opportunities by comparing sportsbook prices against a fair, vig-free probability benchmark.
The +EV Bets FairLine™
The +EV Bets FairLine™ is a proprietary estimate of fair probability designed to be market-aware and conservative by design.
Instead of relying on a single model or chasing inflated edges, FairLine™ blends predictive signals with broader market information to produce an honest baseline for comparison. This approach naturally results in fewer but more reliable opportunities, helping users avoid false edges and overconfidence.
Our Story & Credentials
+EV Bets began nearly a decade ago as a personal analytics project.
Founder Patrick Hayes manually compared publicly available sports predictions to sportsbook lines, tracking results and testing which value thresholds actually held up over time. That process revealed an important lesson: most "edges" disappear under scrutiny.
After earning a Master of Applied Data Science from the University of Michigan, Patrick set out to automate and expand that work. In 2023, +EV Bets launched with MLB player props and the first iteration of the FairLine™, turning years of experimentation into a purpose-built platform.
What started as a spreadsheet evolved into a product built around one core principle: honest probabilities matter more than flashy picks.
Our Methodology
Every +EV opportunity on the platform is derived from the same transparent process:
Aggregate market data — We ingest real-time odds from major sportsbooks across NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAAF, and NCAAB markets.
Calculate fair probabilities — The FairLine™ algorithm strips the vig and synthesizes sharp market signals to estimate the true probability of each outcome.
Identify mispriced odds — When a sportsbook's price implies a lower probability than our FairLine™ estimate, that's a +EV opportunity.
Quantify the edge — We display the exact EV percentage so users can evaluate and compare opportunities transparently.
This isn't a black-box picks service. We show the math behind every recommendation, so users can learn the principles of +EV betting while they use the tool.
Looking Ahead
+EV Bets is continuously evolving, with ongoing improvements to:
FairLine™ calibration and methodology
Market and sport coverage
Filtering, tooling, and transparency for serious bettors
The goal is to build the most trustworthy and user-friendly sports betting analytics platform available — not the loudest one.
Contact
Questions or feedback? Connect with Patrick on X (Twitter) or LinkedIn.