Closing Line Value (CLV)
/KLOH-zing line VAL-yoo/
Closing Line Value (CLV) measures how the odds you locked in compare to the closing line—the final odds posted just before a game begins. The closing line at sharp, high-volume sportsbooks is widely considered the most efficient price in the market because it reflects all available information, betting action, and line movement. If you consistently place bets at better odds than the closing line, it strongly suggests you are identifying value before the broader market does. CLV is widely regarded as the single best predictor of long-term betting profitability, more reliable than win rate or short-term profit alone.
Example
You bet Chiefs -3 (-110) on Tuesday morning. Over the next five days, heavy action moves the line. By kickoff Sunday, it has shifted to Chiefs -4.5 (-110). You got positive CLV because you bought the spread at a full 1.5 points better than the close. Now consider a totals example: you bet the Over 47.5 at -110 on Wednesday, and the total closes at 49.5. Again, you captured positive CLV by acting before the market adjusted. Over hundreds of bets, consistently beating the closing line is the strongest statistical evidence that you have a genuine edge.
Common Questions
Why is CLV important?
Why is CLV important?
CLV is the most reliable indicator of betting skill because it strips away short-term variance and luck. In any given week, a sharp bettor can easily lose more bets than they win, but if they're consistently getting better numbers than the closing line, they're making profitable decisions. Over a large enough sample, positive CLV virtually guarantees positive returns. This is why professional bettors and betting syndicates track CLV religiously—it tells you whether your process is sound regardless of whether recent results have been good or bad.
How much CLV is considered good?
How much CLV is considered good?
Professional bettors typically aim for 1-3% CLV on average across their bets. Even a modest 0.5% average CLV over thousands of wagers indicates a profitable long-term approach. To put this in perspective, consistently beating the closing line by just 1-2 cents on the dollar translates to meaningful profit at volume. Conversely, consistent negative CLV—regularly getting worse odds than the close—almost always leads to long-term losses, because it means you're systematically paying more than market-efficient prices.
Can the closing line be wrong?
Can the closing line be wrong?
Yes, but it happens infrequently at high-volume, sharp sportsbooks. The closing line at books like Pinnacle is considered highly efficient because it incorporates enormous betting volume and information from the sharpest bettors in the world. It's not infallible—injuries reported right before kickoff or unexpected lineup changes can render a closing line outdated—but as a benchmark for evaluating your bets over time, it remains the gold standard. No better publicly available measure of true probability currently exists.
How do I track my CLV?
How do I track my CLV?
Record the odds at which you place each bet and then check the closing line at a sharp sportsbook like Pinnacle just before the event starts. Calculate the difference in implied probability between your price and the closing price. For example, if you bet at -110 (52.4% implied) and the line closed at -120 (54.5% implied), you captured about 2.1% CLV on that wager. Over time, tracking this metric across hundreds of bets gives you a clear picture of whether your handicapping and timing are consistently adding value.