NFL Betting Analysis & Value Finder
Data-driven insights using the +EVBets FairLine™ to find positive expected value in NFL betting markets
+EVBets FairLine™
Live Odds Updates
+EV Opportunities
NFL +EV Opportunities
NFL Season Currently Inactive
No live NFL games to analyze right now. Check back during the season for daily +EV opportunities, or explore our other active sports markets.
Example: What +EV Opportunities Look Like
Here's a sample of the type of profitable betting opportunities our analysis identifies during the NFL season:
DraftKings
Detroit Lions
vs Green Bay Packers
Market: +165
Model: +140
+8.2% EV
The FairLine™ projected fair odds of +140, but the market offered +165. This difference creates +8.2% expected value.
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NFL Betting: The Quick Betting Guide
The National Football League (NFL) is America's most popular sport for betting, with billions wagered each season. With only 17 regular season games per team, each matchup receives intense scrutiny from oddsmakers and bettors alike.
At +EV Bets, we analyze NFL betting markets to find positive expected value opportunities. Our data-driven approach helps you identify when the odds are in your favor, giving you an edge over the sportsbooks.
Whether you're betting on point spreads, moneylines, totals, or player props, our NFL betting tools provide the insights you need to make informed decisions.
NFL Predictions & Analysis
At +EV Bets, we provide NFL betting insights powered by the +EVBets FairLine™. Our analysis compares retail sportsbook odds to our proprietary FairLine™ to identify profitable betting opportunities throughout the season.
The FairLine™ Advantage
FairLine™ Integration
We use our proprietary +EVBets FairLine™ to determine true market probabilities
Market Comparison
We compare predictions against current betting markets
Value Identification
We highlight where the market may have mispriced outcomes
Clear Presentation
We present complex data in an easy-to-understand format
Finding Value
We help you identify value bets by comparing statistical predictions with sportsbook odds. A value bet occurs when:
FairLine™ Probability > Implied Retail Probability
When our FairLine™ suggests better odds than the market offers
By focusing on these discrepancies, you can make more informed betting decisions based on statistical advantage rather than gut feeling.
For detailed NFL predictions and value bets, visit our NFL Moneyline page where we present the latest data and highlight potential value opportunities. Our goal is to provide you with the tools and information needed to make smarter betting decisions, even if you're not a statistical expert.
NFL Betting Strategies
Moneyline Betting Strategy
Moneyline Betting Strategy
Moneyline betting simply involves picking the winner of the game, with no point spread involved. The odds reflect the probability of each team winning.
Effective moneyline betting approaches:
- Finding value in underdogs (especially +150 to +300 range)
- Identifying overvalued favorites
- Understanding situational spots (look-ahead games, trap games)
- Comparing moneyline to implied win probability
Totals (Over/Under) Betting Strategy
Totals (Over/Under) Betting Strategy
Totals betting involves wagering on whether the combined score of both teams will go over or under a number set by oddsmakers.
Factors that influence NFL totals:
- Weather conditions (wind, precipitation, temperature)
- Offensive and defensive efficiency metrics
- Pace of play and offensive philosophy
- Injuries to key offensive players
NFL Betting Trends & Data Analysis
Understanding historical NFL betting trends can provide valuable context for your wagering decisions. While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, certain patterns have shown consistency over time.
Home Underdogs
Home underdogs of +3 or more have covered the spread at a 53.2% rate over the past decade, making them one of the most profitable situational bets in the NFL.
Divisional Rematches
Teams that lost by 10+ points in the first divisional matchup cover the spread 58.7% of the time in the rematch, suggesting value in revenge situations.
Primetime Unders
Primetime games (Sunday, Monday, Thursday night) have gone under the total 54.1% of the time since 2015, possibly due to increased defensive preparation.
Line Movement
When the line moves against the public (reverse line movement), the side the line moves toward covers 56.3% of the time, indicating sharp money influence.
NFL Betting Markets
Learning Resources
NFL Betting FAQ
What is the most profitable way to bet on NFL games?
What is the most profitable way to bet on NFL games?
The most profitable approach to NFL betting is finding value bets where the odds don't accurately reflect the true probability of outcomes. This requires comparing your own assessment of game probabilities against the implied probabilities from sportsbook odds. Our analysis tools help identify these value opportunities across different bet types.
How important is line shopping for NFL betting?
How important is line shopping for NFL betting?
Line shopping is crucial for NFL betting profitability. Finding the best available odds can often be the difference between a winning and losing season. Even half-point differences on spreads can significantly impact your results over time, especially with key numbers like 3 and 7. We recommend having accounts at multiple sportsbooks to maximize your edge.
What bankroll management strategy works best for NFL betting?
What bankroll management strategy works best for NFL betting?
For NFL betting, we recommend risking 1-3% of your bankroll per wager, depending on your confidence level and the perceived edge. With a limited number of games each week, it's important to be selective rather than betting on every game. Focus on quality over quantity, and adjust your bet sizing based on the expected value of each opportunity.
How do weather conditions affect NFL betting?
How do weather conditions affect NFL betting?
Weather can significantly impact NFL games and betting markets. Wind has the strongest effect, particularly on passing and kicking. Games with winds over 15 mph see decreased scoring and passing efficiency. Heavy rain or snow can lead to fewer points and more running plays. Extreme cold (below 20°F) typically favors the under. Always check weather forecasts before placing bets.
Our Data Sources
FairLine™: Consensus-based fair value derived from market-wide data
Odds: Live data from FanDuel and DraftKings
Updates: Every 15 minutes throughout the day
FairLine™ analysis available daily