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Bankroll & Strategy

Arbitrage

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The +EV Bets TeamJanuary 14, 2025
Definition
Arbitrage (arbing) is betting on all possible outcomes of an event at different sportsbooks to guarantee profit regardless of the result. It works by exploiting pricing discrepancies between books—when one sportsbook\'s odds are out of step with another, a window opens where covering every outcome still nets a positive return. Arbs are typically rare and small-margin, often yielding just 1-3% per opportunity. Sportsbooks actively monitor for arb activity and will limit or ban accounts they identify as arbers, making it a strategy with a short shelf life at any single book.
Example

Book A has Chiefs -110, Book B has Raiders +115. Betting $110 on Chiefs at A and $95.65 on Raiders at B costs $205.65 total. If the Chiefs win you collect $210, and if the Raiders win you collect $205.65—locking in a guaranteed profit of roughly $4.35 (about 2.1%). In practice, arbers use specialized software to scan dozens of sportsbooks simultaneously, because these pricing gaps can disappear within seconds as the market corrects. Speed and having funded accounts at many books are essential.

Common Questions

Technically yes—it produces guaranteed profit on every qualifying bet. However, margins are typically tiny at 1-3%, so you need a large bankroll spread across many sportsbooks to generate meaningful returns. Arb opportunities vanish quickly, often within minutes, which means you need fast execution and reliable software. Additionally, sportsbooks will eventually detect your activity and limit your account, so the long-term sustainability of pure arbing is limited compared to other +EV strategies.

Arbers extract value from pricing mistakes without adding meaningful liquidity or taking genuine risk. Sportsbooks prefer sharp bettors who move lines in helpful directions, but arbers simply exploit stale or inaccurate prices across competing books. Because arbers don't provide useful market signals and only profit from inefficiencies, their accounts are typically among the first to be limited or closed. Most books use sophisticated tracking to identify arbing patterns within just a handful of bets.

+EV betting involves placing wagers where the expected value is positive based on probability estimates, meaning you accept short-term variance for long-term profit. Arbitrage eliminates variance entirely by covering every outcome. While arbing guarantees profit on each event, +EV betting generally offers higher margins, more frequent opportunities, and less risk of account limitations, making it the more sustainable approach for serious bettors over the long run.

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