SGP Correlation Strategies
Understanding how outcomes connect within a game—and when sportsbooks misprice those connections
8 min read
What is SGP Correlation?
Same Game Parlays (SGPs) combine multiple bets from a single game. Unlike traditional parlays where outcomes are independent, SGP legs often influence each other. This connection is called correlation.
Positive correlation: When one outcome happens, the other becomes MORE likely. Example: If the game total goes over, individual player scoring props become easier.
Negative correlation: When one outcome happens, the other becomes LESS likely. Example: If Team A wins in a blowout, Team B's star player probably had fewer stats.
Sportsbooks try to price these correlations into SGP odds. Sometimes they get it right. Sometimes they don't. Your edge comes from finding the gaps.
How Sportsbooks Handle Correlation
When you build an SGP, the sportsbook doesn't just multiply the individual odds together. They apply a correlation adjustment—reducing payouts for positively correlated legs and sometimes slightly increasing payouts for negatively correlated ones.
Example: True Odds vs. SGP Payout
Leg 1: Over 220.5 points (-110) → Implied probability: 52.4%
Leg 2: Player X Over 25.5 points (-115) → Implied probability: 53.5%
Independent multiplication: +260 payout (if uncorrelated)
Actual SGP payout: +200 (sportsbook applied ~15% correlation penalty)
The question: Is 15% the RIGHT adjustment? If the true correlation suggests the parlay hits 32% of the time, but the +200 payout implies 33.3%, there's no edge. But if true odds are 35%, you have value.
Sportsbooks use algorithms to estimate correlation, but they can't perfectly model every game situation. Complex correlations, unusual game contexts, and player-specific factors create opportunities.
Common SGP Correlations
Understanding correlation strength helps you evaluate whether sportsbooks are pricing it correctly. Here are common SGP leg combinations:
| Legs | Correlation | Why | Market Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|
Over 48.5 Total Points Team A Over 27.5 Points | Positive (Strong) | If the game goes over, at least one team must score heavily. Team totals are subsets of game totals. | Usually well-priced |
Team A -7 Team A QB Over 275 Passing Yards | Positive (Medium) | Winning teams often have good QB play, but blowouts can mean fewer pass attempts late. | Sometimes mispriced |
Under 210.5 Total Points Player A Under 22.5 Points | Positive (Strong) | Low-scoring games suppress individual scoring. Pace matters enormously. | Often mispriced |
Team A +7 Over 48.5 Total Points | Slight Negative (Weak) | Underdogs covering often means closer, lower-scoring games, though not always. | Often mispriced |
Team A Wins Team B Star Player Over 25 Points | Negative (Medium) | If Team A wins, Team B likely played poorly—including their star. But stat-stuffing in losses exists. | Usually well-priced |
Overtime: Yes Both Players Over Points Props | Positive (Strong) | OT adds 5+ extra minutes of stats. Props set for regulation get easier in overtime. | Often mispriced |
Sport-Specific Correlation Opportunities
Each sport has unique correlations based on game flow and scoring patterns:
NFL
- RB rushing yards + team win (running to close out games)
- QB passing TDs + game total over
- Weather under + lower player passing props
- Defensive/ST TD + underdog covering
NBA
- Game total over + star player points over
- Blowout (large spread) + backup player props over
- Close game + starter minutes over
- Fast pace teams + rebounds over for bigs
MLB
- Team win + player hits/RBI over
- High run total + pitcher strikeouts under
- First 5 innings under + full game under
- Home run props + total runs over
NHL
- High total + power play points over
- Team win + goalie saves under (defense was good)
- First period over + full game over
- Star player points + team to win
Finding Mispriced Correlations
1. Compare SGP Odds Across Books
Different sportsbooks use different correlation models. If DraftKings pays +250 for an SGP and FanDuel pays +320 for the same legs, one of them is mispricing. Shop around and take the best number.
2. Look for Game Context
Algorithms can't fully account for unique game situations. Playoff intensity, rivalry games, weather changes, and coaching adjustments create correlations the models miss. A defensive game plan revealed just before tip-off changes correlations significantly.
3. Understand Game Flow Scenarios
Think through how games actually unfold. In blowouts, starters sit late and backups get run. In close games, star players stay in. Overtime dramatically affects all props. Map out scenarios and see if the SGP odds reflect them.
4. Track and Measure
Record your SGP bets and compare hit rates to implied probabilities. Over 100+ bets, you'll see which correlation plays are actually profitable and which just seem logical but are already priced in.
Common SGP Mistakes
- Assuming correlation = value: Just because legs are correlated doesn't mean the parlay is +EV. The sportsbook knows about obvious correlations and prices them.
- Too many legs: Each additional leg adds juice and variance. A 2-leg correlated SGP is usually better than a 5-leg one, even at lower payouts.
- Ignoring the vig: SGPs typically have higher overall vig than straight bets. Make sure your edge overcomes this extra cost.
- Chasing big payouts: Long-shot SGPs look appealing but are usually -EV. The probability of all legs hitting is almost always lower than the payout implies.
- Not comparing books: Different sportsbooks price the same SGP very differently. Always shop for the best correlation adjustment.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is correlation in same game parlays?
Correlation means two outcomes are connected—when one happens, the other becomes more or less likely. For example, if a team wins by a large margin, their star player probably played well (positive correlation). Sportsbooks try to price this, but often don't get it exactly right, creating opportunities.
Do sportsbooks allow correlated parlays?
Yes, but they adjust the odds. Sportsbooks use correlation matrices to reduce payouts on positively correlated legs. The question isn't whether they allow it—it's whether their adjustment is accurate. Sometimes they underestimate correlation (your edge) or overestimate it (their edge).
What's the most profitable type of SGP correlation?
Look for correlations the market undervalues. Game total and individual scoring often has exploitable correlation. If a game goes to overtime, everyone gets extra stats—but OT probability isn't always fully priced into player props. High-scoring games also mean more garbage time stats for backups.
Should I always build parlays with positive correlation?
Not necessarily. The goal is to find mispriced correlation. Sometimes sportsbooks over-adjust for obvious correlations (like QB passing yards + team to win), eliminating any edge. Less obvious correlations—or correlations in the opposite direction you'd expect—can offer more value.
How many legs should an SGP have?
Fewer is generally better. Each additional leg adds variance and gives the sportsbook more opportunities to have an edge. 2-3 legs with strong, underpriced correlation beats 6 legs of weak correlation every time. Only add legs that improve expected value.