When to Bet Early vs Late
Timing your bets for maximum edge
7 min read
The Quick Answer
Bet early when YOU have an edge the market will correct. Bet late when you're following market signals.
If you have unique analysis or information that lines will move toward, bet early. If you're watching for sharp action or want maximum information, wait. Most recreational bettors should wait and line shop rather than betting immediately.
Early Betting vs Late Betting
Bet Early When...
• You have analysis the market will price in later
• You notice a line is "off" and will move
• Your model strongly disagrees with opening line
• You want to bet the originator/mover
• Public money will move line against you later
Bet Late When...
• You want to follow sharp money movement
• Injury news might change the line
• Weather is a factor (outdoor games)
• You want the most information possible
• Public money moved the line in your favor
Understanding Line Movement
Example Timeline: NFL Sunday Game
Sunday prior: Opening line posted: Chiefs -6
Monday-Wednesday: Sharp action moves to Chiefs -7
Thursday: Injury report—key defender out, line holds
Friday-Saturday: Public money on Chiefs, moves to -7.5
Sunday 1pm: Closing line: Chiefs -7.5
In this example, sharps who bet Chiefs early got -6 or -6.5. They captured 1.5 points of CLV. Bettors who waited got -7.5—still potentially a good bet, but with less value captured.
Strategy by Bettor Type
Recreational Bettor
Recommendation: Wait and line shop
Without unique analysis, you don't have edge to capture by betting early. Wait for information, watch where sharp money goes, and always compare lines across books.
Model-Based Bettor
Recommendation: Bet when your model shows value
If your model says the line is off, bet early before it corrects. If your model agrees with the market, wait for potential better opportunities.
Sharp Bettor
Recommendation: Bet early to capture CLV
Sharps move lines. If you're sharp, your edge is in betting early before the market adjusts to your action. Waiting means missing value you created.
Dangers of Betting Early (Without Edge)
Missing Key Information
Injuries, weather, and lineup changes affect outcomes. Betting Monday for a Sunday game means you might get caught by news that moves the line against you.
Account Limitations
Books flag accounts that consistently bet early and correctly. If you're grabbing early value repeatedly, you'll get limited faster than diversified bettors.
Locking in Bad Prices
If the line moves in your favor after you bet, you've lost potential value. Without strong conviction, waiting can get you a better number.
False Sense of Edge
Thinking "I'll bet early for value" when you don't actually have unique insight leads to negative CLV. The market is smarter than most individuals.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Should I bet early or wait until game time?
It depends on your edge. Bet early if you have information or analysis the market will eventually price in. Wait if you're following sharp money or want the most accurate line. There's no universal "best" time.
Why do lines move between opening and closing?
Lines move due to betting action (especially sharp bets), injury news, weather updates, and public betting patterns. Opening lines are the book's initial estimate; closing lines reflect all available information.
What are "opening lines" and "closing lines"?
Opening line: The first odds posted for an event, usually days or weeks before. Closing line: The final odds when betting closes (game time). The closing line is generally the most accurate market price.
How do sharps approach bet timing?
Sharps bet early when they have a strong opinion that differs from the market. They move lines with their action. If you're not moving lines yourself, consider waiting to see where sharp money goes.
Does bet timing affect my chances of getting limited?
Yes. Betting immediately after lines open (and being right) is a red flag to books. They notice accounts that consistently grab value early. Mix up your timing to extend account longevity.