Live Betting vs Pregame: Which is Better?
Pros, cons, and when each timing strategy offers +EV opportunities
8 min read
The Quick Answer
For most bettors, pregame is better. Lower vig (~4.5% vs 8-12%), more time for research, and less pressure to make quick decisions. Pregame betting rewards preparation; live betting rewards real-time instincts.
However, live betting offers unique +EV opportunities when books are slow to react to game developments. The key is using live betting strategically—not recreationally.
Understanding the Two Approaches
Pregame Betting
Place bets before the game starts. Lines are available for hours or days, giving you time to research and compare odds across books.
- Lower vig (~4.5%)
- Time for thorough research
- Line shopping across multiple books
- Can't react to in-game info
Live Betting
Place bets while the game is in progress. Lines update every few seconds based on score, game flow, and real-time developments.
- React to game developments
- Exploit slow line adjustments
- Higher vig (8-12%+)
- Quick decisions required
The Vig Difference: A Hidden Cost
The biggest disadvantage of live betting is the vig. Sportsbooks charge significantly more because:
~4.5%
Pregame Vig
Standard -110/-1108-10%
Typical Live Vig
Often -115/-115 or worse12%+
High-Volatility Moments
Scoring plays, key momentsWhy the Extra Vig?
Sportsbooks face more uncertainty during live betting. They have less time to adjust lines, bettors may have information advantage (watching the game), and automated systems can make mistakes. The higher vig is their protection against these risks.
Head-to-Head Comparison
| Factor | Pregame | Live |
|---|---|---|
| Typical vig | ~4.5% | 8-12%+ |
| Research time | Hours or days | Seconds |
| Line shopping | Easy across books | Difficult (lines change fast) |
| Information advantage | Everyone has same info | Watchers see game first |
| Market efficiency | Very efficient (sharp) | Can be inefficient temporarily |
| Best for | Systematic, research-based bettors | Quick-thinking, game-watching bettors |
When to Bet Pregame
Most of Your Bets
Unless you have a specific live edge, pregame should be your default. Lower vig compounds over time—8% vs 4.5% vig is the difference between profitable and losing.
Research-Heavy Plays
When your edge comes from analysis (matchup breakdowns, model outputs, injury impacts), pregame betting lets you fully leverage that research.
Line Shopping Opportunities
When you find a line that's off across books, bet pregame while you can. Live lines are harder to compare across multiple books quickly.
When Live Betting Makes Sense
Slow Line Adjustments
When you spot something the book hasn't priced yet—injury impact, momentum shift, weather change—there's a window before lines adjust. Act fast.
Overreaction Spots
Markets overreact to early scores. A team down 7-0 in the first quarter isn't necessarily losing—but lines often move too far. Fade the overreaction.
Hedging Positions
If your pregame bet is winning but you want to lock in profit or reduce risk, live betting the other side can make sense. Calculate if the hedge is worth the extra vig.
The Dangers of Live Betting
- Emotional decisions
Chasing losses or doubling down after bad beats happens more when betting in real-time
- Recency bias
The last 5 minutes feel more important than they are. One big play doesn't change underlying probabilities as much as you think
- Action addiction
Live betting is designed to be exciting. That excitement can override rational decision-making
- Vig bleed
Multiple live bets per game at 8%+ vig adds up fast. One pregame bet at 4.5% is almost always better
Find +EV Pregame Bets Daily
We identify mathematically profitable pregame bets so you can skip the high-vig live betting trap. Lower vig, better research, more profit over time.
The Bottom Line
Pregame betting should be your default. Lower vig, more research time, and easier line shopping make it the foundation of profitable betting.
Live betting is a tool, not a strategy. Use it when you spot specific inefficiencies—slow line adjustments, market overreactions, or hedge opportunities. Don't use it for entertainment or action addiction.
The 80/20 rule: 80%+ of your bets should be pregame. Live betting is the 20% exception for specific edges—not the rule.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is live betting or pregame betting more profitable?
Neither is inherently more profitable—both offer +EV opportunities in different contexts. Pregame betting has lower vig and allows for thorough analysis, while live betting can exploit real-time game developments that books struggle to price. Pregame is generally recommended for beginners due to lower variance and more time to research.
Why is the vig higher on live bets?
Sportsbooks charge higher vig on live bets (often -115 to -130) because they have less time to adjust lines and face more uncertainty. The extra vig compensates for the increased risk of being wrong. They also need to account for information asymmetry—bettors watching the game may spot developments before the book adjusts.
What are the advantages of live betting?
Live betting advantages include: (1) capitalizing on momentum shifts and overreactions, (2) betting after seeing how the game is actually playing out, (3) hedging pregame positions, and (4) exploiting slow line movements when books react slowly to in-game events like injuries or weather changes.
Is it easier to find +EV live bets?
It depends. Live markets move fast and can be less efficient when books haven't caught up to game developments. However, the higher vig means you need bigger edges to be profitable. Live betting also requires quick decision-making and real-time game knowledge, which many bettors lack.
Should I bet pregame or wait for live?
For most bets, pregame is better due to lower vig and more time for analysis. Save live betting for specific situations: when you notice something the market hasn't priced (momentum, injury impact), when a pregame bet you liked becomes even better live, or when hedging makes sense. Don't live bet just for entertainment.