What is Closing Line Value (CLV)?
The #1 predictor of long-term betting success
8 min read
The Quick Answer
CLV measures whether you bet at better odds than where the line closed.
If you bet at +110 and the line closed at +100, you got positive CLV. The closing line represents the market's best estimate of true probability. Beating it consistently means you have edge—and edge wins long-term.
Why CLV Matters More Than Results
The Problem with Results
• Short-term: Anyone can get lucky
• Variance masks skill for 1000s of bets
• Bad bettors can win short-term
• Good bettors can lose short-term
Why CLV is Better
• Shows if you're getting good prices
• Removes luck from the equation
• Predicts future success with fewer bets
• The metric professional bettors track
The Bottom Line
If you consistently beat closing lines, you WILL be profitable long-term—even if you're losing now. If you consistently get worse than closing lines, you WILL lose long-term—even if you're winning now.
How to Calculate CLV
Example Calculation
Your bet: Bills +3 at +110
Closing line: Bills +2.5 at -105
Step 1: Your odds implied probability = 100 ÷ (110 + 100) = 47.6%
Step 2: Closing odds implied probability = 105 ÷ (105 + 100) = 51.2%
CLV: 51.2% - 47.6% = +3.6% (excellent!)
You got +3 when the line closed at +2.5, AND you got +110 when it closed at -105. That's significant value captured.
What is "Good" CLV?
Negative CLV
Below 0%
You're systematically getting worse prices than the market. This is a losing strategy long-term.
+1% to +2% CLV
Solid recreational sharp
You're finding some edge. Keep doing what you're doing and you should profit long-term.
+3%+ CLV
Approaching professional level
Excellent edge. This level of CLV will generate significant profits over time.
How to Improve Your CLV
1. Bet Early (With Purpose)
If you have insight the market doesn't, bet before lines adjust. Don't bet early just for the sake of it—bet early when you have reason to believe you're ahead of the market.
2. Line Shop Aggressively
Use multiple sportsbooks and always get the best available price. Getting -108 instead of -115 directly improves your CLV.
3. Avoid Chasing Steam
Betting into sharp line movement means you're getting worse prices than the sharps. If the line moved, you probably missed the value.
4. Find Genuinely Mispriced Lines
Look for spots where books are slow to adjust or where you have information/analysis the market doesn't reflect yet.
Find Bets That Beat the Close
Our FairLine algorithm identifies mispriced odds before the market corrects.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Closing Line Value (CLV)?
CLV measures whether you bet at better odds than the closing line (the final odds before a game starts). If you bet Chiefs -3 and they close at -4, you got positive CLV. Consistently beating the close is the best predictor of long-term profitability.
Why is CLV more important than short-term results?
Short-term results include a lot of variance (luck). A losing bettor can win in the short term. But if you consistently beat closing lines, you have edge—and edge always wins long-term. CLV shows skill, not luck.
How do I calculate my CLV?
Compare the odds you got to the closing odds. Convert both to implied probability and find the difference. Example: You got +110 (47.6%), close was +100 (50%). Your CLV = 50% - 47.6% = +2.4%.
What is a good CLV?
Any positive CLV is good. Average CLV of +1-2% is solid recreational sharp territory. +3%+ is excellent and approaches professional levels. Negative CLV means you're systematically getting worse odds than market.
How can I improve my CLV?
Bet early before lines move (if you have insight), line shop across multiple books, avoid betting into steam moves, and focus on finding genuinely mispriced lines rather than betting popular sides.