Key numbers in NFL betting are margins of victory that occur most frequently—primarily 3 and 7 due to field goals and touchdowns. About 15% of NFL games land on exactly 3, and 9% on 7. Getting the right side of key numbers significantly impacts long-term results when betting spreads.
Example
Spread of -2.5 vs -3.5 matters enormously. At -2.5 you win if the team wins by 3+. At -3.5 you lose on exactly 3. Since ~15% of games land on 3, that half-point across key numbers is worth more than half-points elsewhere.
Common Questions
What are the most important key numbers?
What are the most important key numbers?
3 is most important (~15% of games), followed by 7 (~9%), then 10, 6, and 14. In NFL, 3 and 7 dominate because of scoring increments. NBA and MLB don't have meaningful key numbers—margins are more evenly distributed.
How do key numbers affect teaser strategy?
How do key numbers affect teaser strategy?
Wong teasers work because 6-point teasers can cross both 3 and 7. Taking a favorite from -7.5 to -1.5 or an underdog from +1.5 to +7.5 captures massive probability swings. This is why NFL teasers can be +EV while NBA teasers aren't.