Futures

Often before the season starts, when markets tend to be least efficient and odds are at their longest. Sportsbooks haven't yet had time to sharpen their numbers through betting action, so there's more room for mispricing. However, in-season futures can also offer value after overreactions to early results. A team that starts 1-3 might see their odds balloon despite still having a strong roster and favorable remaining schedule. The key is finding mispriced odds based on your own analysis, not simply trying to time the market.

The primary downside is that your money is locked up for weeks or months, reducing your bankroll flexibility and preventing you from deploying that capital on other +EV opportunities. Futures markets also typically carry significantly higher vig, often 10-20% or more, compared to the 4-5% vig on standard game lines. This higher juice means you need to find bigger edges to be profitable. That said, if you identify genuinely +EV futures bets, the edge can more than compensate for the reduced liquidity and higher vig.

Many sportsbooks now offer early cash-out options on futures, though the cash-out amount typically includes a significant discount to fair value since the book takes a cut. Alternatively, you can hedge your futures position by placing a bet on the opposing side as the event nears its conclusion. For example, if your team reaches the championship game, you can bet the other team to guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome. Hedging gives you more control over the payout structure compared to accepting a sportsbook's cash-out offer.