What is a Futures Bet?
Bet on championships, awards, and season-long outcomes
6 min read
The Quick Answer
A futures bet is a wager on something that won't be decided until later—usually the outcome of an entire season, tournament, or award race.
When you bet on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl before the season starts, that's a futures bet. You're predicting an outcome months in advance and locking in odds today. If you're right, you get paid at those original odds when the event concludes—even if the odds have changed dramatically since you placed your bet.
Common Futures Markets
Team Futures
- Championship Winner
Super Bowl, NBA Finals, World Series, Stanley Cup
- Conference/Division Winner
AFC/NFC, Eastern/Western Conference, etc.
- Win Totals
Over/under on team's total wins for season
- Make/Miss Playoffs
Yes/no on playoff qualification
Player Futures
- MVP Awards
Regular season and playoff MVP
- Rookie of the Year
Offensive/Defensive ROY
- Statistical Leaders
Passing yards, home runs, points scored
- Individual Milestones
Will player reach X yards/points/etc.
How Futures Odds Work
Example: Super Bowl Futures (Preseason)
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability | $100 Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | +600 | 14.3% | $700 ($600 profit) |
| 49ers | +800 | 11.1% | $900 ($800 profit) |
| Eagles | +1000 | 9.1% | $1,100 ($1,000 profit) |
| Lions | +2500 | 3.8% | $2,600 ($2,500 profit) |
| Patriots | +15000 | 0.7% | $15,100 ($15,000 profit) |
Notice that longshots offer massive payouts but have very low implied probabilities. The key is finding teams where you believe their true probability is higher than the market implies.
How Futures Odds Change
Example: Team's Super Bowl Odds Through Season
| Timing | Record | Odds | What Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preseason | — | +2500 | Opening odds |
| Week 4 | 4-0 | +1200 | Hot start |
| Week 10 | 8-1 | +500 | Contender status |
| Playoffs | 13-4 (#1 seed) | +250 | Favorite to win |
If you bet this team at +2500 in preseason, you keep those odds even when they become the favorite. That's the advantage of betting futures early—locking in value before the market adjusts.
Futures Betting: Pros and Cons
Advantages
- Lock in value before odds shorten
- Potentially massive payouts on longshots
- Season-long rooting interest
- Hedge opportunities as season progresses
Disadvantages
- Money tied up for months
- Higher vig than game betting (10-25%)
- Injuries can doom your bet
- Can't react to new information
Futures Betting Strategies
- Bet early for value
The best futures value is often available before the season starts or early in the season, before public perception catches up with reality.
- Don't overcommit
Since futures tie up your bankroll for months, limit futures bets to 1-5% of your total bankroll. You need liquidity for regular game betting.
- Consider hedging late
If your +2500 longshot makes the championship game, you can hedge by betting the opponent to guarantee profit regardless of outcome.
- Shop odds aggressively
Futures odds vary significantly between sportsbooks. A team at +800 at one book might be +1000 at another. Always compare before betting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a futures bet in sports betting?
A futures bet is a wager on an outcome that will be determined in the future—often weeks or months away. Common examples include betting on which team will win the Super Bowl, who will win MVP, or which team will make the playoffs. Futures are placed well in advance of the outcome.
When do futures bets pay out?
Futures bets pay out only after the event or season concludes. If you bet on a team to win the championship in October, you won't receive payment until March, April, or whenever that championship is decided. Your money is locked up until then.
Why do futures odds change?
Futures odds change based on team performance, injuries, trades, betting action, and new information. A team that starts 8-0 will have shorter championship odds than they did in the preseason. Odds are continuously adjusted throughout the season.
Can I cash out futures bets early?
Some sportsbooks offer early cash out options on futures, allowing you to lock in profit or cut losses before the season ends. The cash out value depends on current odds and how your bet is performing. Not all futures qualify for cash out.
Are futures bets good value?
Futures can offer good value if you have strong opinions before the market catches up. Early-season futures on teams that overperform can be highly profitable. However, the vig on futures is typically higher (10-25%) than game betting, and your money is tied up for extended periods.