Definition
The closing line is the final odds offered by a sportsbook just before an event starts. It represents the most accurate line after all information and sharp action has been incorporated. Beating the closing line consistently (getting better odds than the close) is the strongest indicator of long-term betting success.
Example
You bet Chiefs -3 on Tuesday. By kickoff Sunday, they've moved to -4.5. The closing line is -4.5. You beat it by 1.5 points—you got better value than anyone who bet at the close. Over time, beating closing lines predicts profit.
Common Questions
Why is the closing line considered the most accurate?
Why is the closing line considered the most accurate?
The closing line incorporates all available information—injuries, weather, sharp action, and market efficiency. It's been refined by millions in betting volume. It's the market's best estimate of true probability.
How do I consistently beat the closing line?
How do I consistently beat the closing line?
Bet early when you have an edge, before sharp action moves the line. Develop your own models or analysis that identifies value before the market does. Track your CLV to measure your edge objectively.