Alternate Lines: Finding Hidden +EV
Why alt spreads and totals are often mispriced—and how to exploit them
9 min read
The Quick Answer
Alternate lines can hide significant +EV because sportsbooks price them with less precision than main lines. When a book sets a dozen alternate spreads, they can't perfectly price each one—and that's your opportunity.
The strategy: calculate what the alternate odds should be, then compare to what's offered. When the book's odds are better than fair value, you have +EV.
What Are Alternate Lines?
Alternate lines let you adjust the spread or total from the main line in exchange for different odds. Move the line in your favor, odds get worse. Move it against you, odds get better.
Example: Bills vs Dolphins (Main Line: Bills -7)
| Spread | Bills Odds | Trade-off |
|---|---|---|
| Bills -10.5 | +175 | Better odds, harder to cover |
| Bills -7 (main) | -110 | Standard line |
| Bills -3.5 | -250 | Worse odds, easier to cover |
| Bills +0.5 | -400 | Much worse odds, just need to win |
Why Alternate Lines Get Mispriced
Main lines get the most attention—sharp bettors, syndicates, and the book's best oddsmakers focus there. Alternate lines? Less priority, less accuracy.
1. Automated Pricing
Many books use algorithms to generate alternate lines from the main line. These algorithms make assumptions that don't always hold—especially around key numbers in football.
2. Less Sharp Money
Professional bettors focus on main lines where limits are highest. Alt lines don't move as efficiently because they don't attract the same corrective action.
3. Volume Over Precision
Books offer 10+ alternate spreads per game. They can't perfectly price each one. The goal is "close enough"—which sometimes isn't close enough.
4. Key Number Errors
The jump from 2.5 to 3 isn't linear in football. Books sometimes underprice or overprice alternates that cross key numbers like 3 and 7.
How to Find +EV Alternate Lines
The process is straightforward: calculate what the odds should be, then compare to what's offered.
Step-by-Step Example
Scenario: Chiefs -7 (-110) main line. You're considering Chiefs -3.5 alternate.
Step 1: Calculate main line implied probability
-110 implies ~52.4% win probability for Chiefs -7
Step 2: Estimate probability for -3.5
Moving 3.5 points adds ~12-15% win probability
Chiefs -3.5 should be around 64-67% to win
Step 3: Calculate fair odds for that probability
65% implied probability = -186 fair odds
With ~4.5% vig = -210 to -220 expected
Step 4: Compare to book's actual odds
If book offers -195, that's +EV (better than fair)
If book offers -250, that's -EV (worse than fair)
Common Alternate Line Edges
Key Number Alternates
Alt lines crossing 3 or 7 in football often have extra value. Books sometimes underprice the probability shift these key numbers represent.
Example: Alt spread moving from -6.5 to -3.5 may be underpriced.Large Favorites on Alt Spread
When a team is heavily favored, alt spreads that give them plus points can offer value. The odds adjustment is sometimes too generous.
Example: -14 favorite at +2.5 alt for -800 may be better than moneyline.Alt Totals in Weather
When weather should significantly impact scoring, alt totals may not fully adjust. Under bettors can find value on lower alt totals with better odds.
Example: Main total 45, alt under 38.5 in wind/snow.Dangers of Alternate Lines
Watch Out For These Traps
- Chasing better-looking odds
Don't bet alt lines just because +200 sounds better than -110. The +200 line is harder to hit—make sure the math justifies it.
- Ignoring the vig
Alt lines often carry higher vig than main lines. Factor this into your calculations.
- Lower limits
Books often limit alt lines to smaller bets. You might find +EV but can't bet meaningful amounts.
- Getting limited faster
Winning on alt lines can get you flagged as a sharp. Books watch these markets closely.
Practical Tips for Alt Line Betting
- Compare across multiple books
Alt line pricing varies widely. One book's +180 alt might be +150 at another—or vice versa.
- Focus on NFL Sundays
With so many games, books can't perfectly price every alternate. The volume creates opportunity.
- Use probability calculators
Don't guess what odds should be. Calculate implied probability and fair value for each alternate.
- Start with key number crosses
The best alt line value often involves crossing 3 or 7 in football. Focus your search there first.
- Track your alt line results separately
Know if you're actually finding edge or just betting more bets. Alts should have higher CLV if you're doing it right.
Find +EV Bets—Main Lines and Alternates
We scan thousands of lines daily to identify mathematically profitable opportunities across all bet types. Stop manually calculating—let us do the work.
The Bottom Line
Alternate lines aren't inherently better or worse than main lines—they're just different risk/reward trade-offs. The question is whether the book priced them correctly.
When books misprice alts—especially around key numbers in football—you get +EV opportunities. But you need to do the math. Don't bet alts because they "feel" right.
The strategy: Calculate fair value, compare to offered odds, bet when the book is giving you better than they should. That's it.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are alternate lines in sports betting?
Alternate lines are spreads or totals set at different numbers than the main line. If the main spread is -7, alternate lines might offer -3.5 (at worse odds) or -10.5 (at better odds). They let you choose your risk/reward trade-off by adjusting points and odds.
Are alternate lines worth betting?
Alternate lines can offer +EV opportunities when sportsbooks misprice the odds adjustment for moving the line. Books often set alternate lines less carefully than main lines because they receive less action. Compare the alternate odds to what they should be mathematically—that's where value hides.
Why do sportsbooks offer alternate lines?
Sportsbooks offer alternate lines to increase betting volume and cater to different bettor preferences. Recreational bettors love getting a team at a smaller spread (even with worse odds), and sharps occasionally find value when the book misprices an alternate. Both sides bet more.
How do I find +EV alternate lines?
Compare the implied probability of the alternate line to what it should be. If the main line is -7 (-110) and the alternate is -3.5 (+140), calculate whether +140 properly reflects the increased win probability of only needing to cover 3.5 instead of 7. Books sometimes miscalculate these adjustments.
Should I bet alternate totals or alternate spreads?
Both can offer value, but alternate spreads tend to have more inefficiency in football due to key numbers. Alternate totals can be valuable in high-scoring or low-scoring game situations. The key is comparing the odds offered to fair value—not the bet type itself.