Why Betting Favorites Doesn't Work
The hidden tax on "safe" bets and why the public always loses
8 min read
The Intuition Trap
It feels logical: bet on the team most likely to win. But this intuition is exactly what sportsbooks exploit. The price you pay for favorites already accounts for their higher win probability—and then some.
When everyone bets the same direction, the line moves. Not because the team got better, but because the book needs to balance their risk. You end up paying a "popularity tax."
The Math Problem With Favorites
Here's the core issue: winning percentage ≠ profitability. A bet's value comes from comparing the implied probability in the odds to the true probability of the outcome.
Example: -200 Favorite
Odds: -200 (risk $200 to win $100)
Implied probability: 66.7%
Break-even win rate: 66.7%
If true win rate is 63%: -EV (lose $4.50 per $100 wagered)
The favorite can win 63% of the time—very impressive—and you still lose money betting them at -200.
Why Sportsbooks Shade Lines Against Favorites
Sportsbooks don't just set odds based on probability. They also factor in where the money will flow. Since the public overwhelmingly bets favorites:
- Favorites get worse odds than they should
Books can offer -210 instead of fair value -190 because people will bet it anyway
- Underdogs get better odds than they should
To attract action on the other side, dogs often have inflated payouts
- The spread widens for popular teams
Patriots, Cowboys, Lakers—public teams have historically been -EV to bet
The Public Money Effect
70%
of public money on favorites
30%
of public money on underdogs
When 70% of bets go one direction, the book adjusts the line—not the probability
Value Betting vs. "Safe" Betting
"Safe" Betting Mindset
- Picks based on who will win
- Avoids underdogs entirely
- Judges success by win rate
- Ignores the price paid
+EV Betting Mindset
- Compares odds to true probability
- Bets favorites OR underdogs based on value
- Judges success by ROI
- The price IS the decision
When Favorites Actually Are Good Bets
Don't misunderstand: betting favorites isn't inherently wrong. It's blindly betting favorites that loses. Here's when a favorite bet makes sense:
Line Offers Value
If your model says Team A should be -180 but they're listed at -150, that's a +EV favorite bet. You're getting a discount on the true probability.
Market Overreaction
After a bad loss, the public sometimes abandons a good team. A legitimate favorite at temporarily deflated odds can offer value before the line corrects.
Cross-Market Arbitrage
Different sportsbooks price favorites differently. Finding -160 at one book when others have -180 represents clear value—regardless of public perception.
Stop Paying the Popularity Tax
We find value bets on favorites AND underdogs—based on math, not gut feeling. See which bets actually offer +EV today.
The Right Approach
The profitable approach isn't "always bet underdogs" (that's just the opposite mistake). It's always bet value—which sometimes means favorites, sometimes underdogs, and often means passing on games entirely.
Start asking "Is this price good?" instead of "Will this team win?" The first question leads to profit. The second leads to paying the public's popularity tax.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why doesn't betting favorites work long-term?
Betting favorites doesn't work because the public overvalues them, causing sportsbooks to shade the lines. You end up paying a premium (worse odds) for perceived "safety." Over time, this premium erodes your bankroll even when you pick winners.
Do favorites win more often than underdogs?
Yes, favorites win more often—that's why they're favorites. But winning percentage isn't the same as profitability. A -200 favorite needs to win 67% to break even. If they only win 63% (still impressive), you lose money betting them.
Is it ever profitable to bet on favorites?
Yes, when the line offers value. If a team should be -150 but is listed at -130, that's a +EV favorite bet. The key is comparing the implied probability to true probability, not just betting teams you think will win.
What is public money bias?
Public money bias is the tendency of recreational bettors to overbet favorites, popular teams, and recent winners. Sportsbooks exploit this by offering worse odds on public sides, making contrarian betting on unpopular underdogs often more profitable.
Should I always bet underdogs instead?
No—blindly betting underdogs is just as flawed as blindly betting favorites. The goal is to find value: bets where the odds underestimate the true probability. Sometimes that's a favorite, sometimes an underdog.