Props vs Game Bets: Which Has Higher EV?
Comparing player props to spreads, totals, and moneylines for profitable betting
9 min read
The Quick Answer
Props often have more +EV opportunities because they're less efficiently priced—sportsbooks focus their sharpest lines on game bets where the most money flows. However, props come with trade-offs: higher vig, lower limits, and faster limiting.
The ideal approach? Hunt value in both markets. Game bets for volume and lower vig, props for edge when you spot inefficiencies.
Understanding the Two Markets
Game Bets
Traditional betting markets focused on game outcomes: spreads, moneylines, and totals (over/unders).
- Tightest odds (~4.5% vig)
- Highest betting limits
- Most liquid markets
- Sharpest lines (hardest to beat)
Prop Bets
Player and game-specific wagers: rushing yards, strikeouts, points scored, first touchdown, etc.
- Softer lines (more +EV potential)
- Less efficiently priced
- Higher vig (often -115 to -125)
- Lower limits, faster limiting
Why Props Often Have More Edge
Sportsbooks operate on limited resources. They can't perfectly price every market, so they prioritize where the money is. Here's why props slip through the cracks:
1. Less Sharp Action
Professional bettors with large bankrolls primarily bet game lines where limits are highest. Props don't get the same volume of sharp money to move lines to fair value.
2. More Variables to Price
A game has one spread, but hundreds of prop lines. Books can't dedicate equal attention to each player's rushing yards, rebounds, or strikeouts. Something gets mispriced.
3. Delayed Line Adjustments
When news breaks (injuries, lineup changes, weather), game lines update fast. Prop lines? Often slower. This creates temporary +EV windows.
4. Matchup-Specific Edges
A running back facing the league's worst rush defense, or a batter vs a pitcher he crushes—these matchup edges are often underpriced in prop markets.
The Trade-offs: Why Sharps Still Bet Game Lines
If props are easier to beat, why don't all professional bettors focus exclusively on them? The trade-offs are real:
| Factor | Game Bets | Prop Bets |
|---|---|---|
| Typical vig | ~4.5% (-110/-110) | ~6-8% (-115/-115 or worse) |
| Betting limits | $5K-$50K+ at most books | $100-$2K typical |
| Time to get limited | Months to years | Weeks to months |
| Research required | Team-level analysis | Individual player analysis |
| Line efficiency | Very sharp (harder to beat) | Softer (more +EV opportunity) |
| Variance | Lower (team outcomes) | Higher (individual performance) |
The Limiting Problem
Winning prop bettors get limited fast. Books track your performance by market type—crush player props for a month and you might find your limits dropped to $10 per bet. This is why many +EV bettors use props strategically rather than exclusively.
Where to Find +EV in Each Market
+EV in Game Bets
- Line shopping across books
Same game, different odds = easy edge
- Early week vs game day lines
Lines sharpen as game approaches
- Totals in specific conditions
Weather, pace mismatches, injuries
- Derivatives (first half, quarters)
Less attention = less efficiency
+EV in Prop Bets
- Matchup-specific edges
Player vs weak defense/opposing starter
- Usage/workload changes
Injuries to teammates affect target share
- Alternate lines
Different O/U thresholds often mispriced
- Less-popular prop markets
Rebounds, assists, K's > points/yards
The +EV Approach: Use Both Markets
The best strategy isn't choosing one market—it's knowing when each offers value:
- Start with game bets for bankroll building
Lower vig and higher limits let you build volume sustainably
- Add props when you spot specific edges
Matchup advantages, news-based opportunities, correlation plays
- Diversify across books to delay limiting
Spread your prop action to stay under the radar longer
- Track your results by market type
Know where you're actually finding edge vs where you're paying vig
Find +EV Bets Across All Markets
We scan game lines and props daily to identify mathematically profitable opportunities. Stop guessing where value lives—let the math show you.
The Bottom Line
Props offer more +EV opportunity because sportsbooks can't perfectly price thousands of player markets. But that edge comes with higher vig, lower limits, and faster limiting.
The winning approach: use game bets for volume and props for targeted edge. Don't marry one market—go where the value is on any given day.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are props or game bets more profitable?
Neither is inherently more profitable—it depends on where you find edges. Props often have softer lines because they get less sharp action and are harder for books to price accurately. However, they also typically have lower limits and higher vig. Game bets (spreads, moneylines, totals) have tighter lines but more liquidity. +EV bettors should look for value in both markets.
Why are prop bets considered easier to beat?
Prop markets are often set by less sophisticated models and receive less sharp money to move lines efficiently. Books prioritize game lines where most money flows. Player props especially can be mispriced when books don't properly account for matchups, pace of play, injuries, or usage changes. This inefficiency creates +EV opportunities.
What are the downsides of betting props?
The main downsides are: (1) higher vig (often -115 to -125 instead of -110), (2) lower betting limits, (3) faster limiting by sportsbooks if you win consistently, and (4) more variance since individual performance is less predictable than team outcomes. Props also require more research per bet.
Should I focus on props or game bets as a beginner?
Beginners should start with game bets (spreads, totals) because they're simpler, have better odds, and allow you to develop fundamental handicapping skills. Once you understand how lines move and where value appears, you can explore props where your sport-specific knowledge might give you an edge.
What types of props have the most +EV opportunities?
Player props—especially in less-popular markets like assists, rebounds, or pitcher strikeouts—tend to have more inefficiencies. Alternate lines (player O/U at different thresholds) can also be mispriced. Same-game parlays with correlated props can offer hidden +EV when the correlation isn't properly priced.