Parlays vs Straight Bets
The math behind why one costs you 6x more than the other
7 min read
The Quick Verdict
✓ Straight Bets
• 4-5% house edge
• Win 52.4% to break even
• Sustainable for long-term profit
Verdict: Use for serious betting
✗ Parlays
• 15-25% house edge
• Massively reduced win probability
• Vegas profits 6x more from these
Verdict: Entertainment only
The Math: Why Parlays Cost You More
The house edge on parlays compounds with each leg. Here's how win probability drops:
| Bet Type | Win Probability* | Typical Payout | House Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Straight Bet | 52% | -110 (0.91:1) | ~4.5% |
| 2-Leg Parlay | 27% | +264 (2.64:1) | ~10% |
| 3-Leg Parlay | 14% | +596 (5.96:1) | ~15% |
| 4-Leg Parlay | 7.3% | +1228 (12.28:1) | ~18% |
| 5-Leg Parlay | 3.8% | +2435 (24.35:1) | ~22% |
*Assuming 52% win probability per leg at -110 odds. Real-world parlay payouts are often worse than true odds.
Key Insight: You Lose 6x Faster on Parlays
A UNLV study found that Vegas profits 6x more from parlay bets than straight bets. Illinois reported 18.2% hold on parlays vs 4.9% on straight bets in 2023. The math isn't close—parlays are designed to maximize house profit.
Dollar-for-Dollar Comparison
Let's compare betting $100 on four games straight vs. a 4-leg parlay:
4 Straight Bets ($25 each)
Total wagered: $100
Expected wins: 2.08 games (52%)
Expected win amount: 2.08 × $22.73 = $47.28
Expected loss amount: 1.92 × $25 = $48.00
Expected loss: -$0.72 per $100
4-Leg Parlay ($100)
Total wagered: $100
Win probability: 7.3%
Payout if win: ~$1,000
Expected value: (0.073 × $1000) - (0.927 × $100)
Expected loss: -$19.70 per $100
The parlay costs you 27x more in expected loss per $100 bet.
Same-Game Parlays: Even Worse
Same-game parlays (SGPs) have an additional problem: correlated outcomes.
If you parlay "Patrick Mahomes over 275 passing yards" with "Chiefs to win," these outcomes are correlated—if Mahomes throws for 300 yards, the Chiefs are more likely to win.
Sportsbooks know this and reduce payouts to account for correlation. But they market SGPs as exciting and easy. UCLA psychiatrist Dr. Timothy Fong compared same-game parlays to slot machines—high entertainment value, terrible expected returns.
The Only Times Parlays Make Sense
1. You're Limited on Straight Bets
Some books limit your straight bet max but allow larger parlay amounts. If you have +EV picks and can only bet them via parlay, it's better than not betting at all.
2. Exploiting Correlated Parlays
Occasionally, books misprice correlated parlays. If two outcomes are more correlated than the odds suggest, there can be +EV. This is advanced and rare.
3. Pure Entertainment
If you're betting a small amount for fun with money you expect to lose, parlays add excitement. Just don't confuse entertainment with strategy.
The Bottom Line
If your goal is to make money betting on sports, avoid parlays.
The math is unambiguous: parlays have 3-5x higher house edge than straight bets. Sportsbooks heavily promote parlays precisely because they're so profitable for the house.
Stick to straight bets, focus on finding +EV opportunities, and let the math work in your favor. Learn more about expected value betting and bankroll management.
6x
Vegas profits more from parlays than straight bets
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Frequently Asked Questions
Are parlays or straight bets better?
Straight bets are better for profitability. Parlays have 15-25% house edge compared to 4-5% for straight bets. Studies show Vegas profits 6x more from parlays than straight bets. If your goal is long-term profit, stick to straight bets.
Why are parlays so hard to win?
Each leg of a parlay must win for the bet to pay. With a 52% win rate per leg, a 2-leg parlay has only 27% chance of winning, a 3-leg parlay has 14%, and a 4-leg parlay has just 7.3%. The probability drops exponentially as you add legs.
Are same-game parlays worse than regular parlays?
Yes, same-game parlays (SGPs) typically have even higher vig because the outcomes are correlated (if one hits, others are more likely). Sportsbooks reduce payouts to account for this correlation while marketing them as exciting. They're designed for entertainment, not profit.
When do parlays make sense?
Parlays can make sense in limited scenarios: when you're limited to small straight bet amounts but allowed larger parlay bets, when betting correlated outcomes the book hasn't properly priced, or purely for entertainment with money you expect to lose.
What is the house edge on parlays?
The house edge on parlays ranges from 15-25% compared to 4-5% on straight bets. Illinois sportsbooks reported 18.2% hold on parlays vs 4.9% on straight bets in 2023. This means you lose 3-5x faster on parlays than straight bets.