Moneyline vs Spread: Which is Better?
When each bet type offers an edge—and how to find +EV in both markets
8 min read
The Quick Answer
Neither is universally "better." Moneylines and spreads are different betting markets with different value propositions. The smart approach is comparing both for every game and betting whichever offers better expected value for your assessment of the matchup.
Generally: spreads offer better value on heavy favorites (where moneyline vig is highest), while moneylines can offer better value on slight underdogs you believe can win outright.
Understanding the Two Bet Types
Moneyline
The simplest bet in sports: pick the winner. No margin required—just win the game.
- Simple: team just needs to win
- Odds vary based on matchup
- Higher payouts on underdogs
- Expensive vig on heavy favorites
Example:
Chiefs -200 vs Broncos +170
Bet $200 on Chiefs to win $100, or $100 on Broncos to win $170Point Spread
A handicap applied to level the playing field. Favorites must win by more than the spread; underdogs can lose by less.
- Balanced odds (typically -110)
- Margin of victory matters
- Lower vig than heavy ML favorites
- Can push if landing on exact spread
Example:
Chiefs -4.5 (-110) vs Broncos +4.5 (-110)
Chiefs must win by 5+, Broncos can lose by 4 or less (or win)The Vig Difference: Where Real Value Lives
The key insight for +EV bettors: moneyline vig scales with favorite strength, while spread vig stays relatively constant. This creates predictable value patterns.
| Matchup Type | Moneyline Example | ML Vig | Spread Vig | Better Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pick 'em | -110 / -110 | ~4.5% | ~4.5% | Equal |
| Small favorite | -150 / +130 | ~4-5% | ~4.5% | Similar |
| Moderate favorite | -250 / +200 | ~6-7% | ~4.5% | Spread (fav) |
| Heavy favorite | -400 / +300 | ~8-10% | ~4.5% | Spread (fav) |
| Massive favorite | -600 / +450 | ~10-12% | ~4.5% | Spread (fav) |
The +EV Insight
When betting favorites: the larger the spread, the more you're paying in vig on the moneyline. That's why the spread often offers better value for heavy favorites—you're paying ~4.5% vig instead of 10%+. But for underdogs you believe can win outright, the moneyline can offer superior value.
When to Bet Moneyline
1. Underdog Upset Potential
When you genuinely believe an underdog can win—not just cover—the moneyline offers better upside. A +150 underdog winning outright pays more than covering a +3 spread at -110.
2. Close Matchups
In pick 'em or near-pick 'em games, moneyline and spread vig are similar. The moneyline removes the complexity of margin—simpler bet, same edge.
3. Small Spreads (1-3 pts)
When the spread is tiny, you're betting on margin in a close game. The moneyline simplifies your thesis: team A wins or they don't. Less variance on close games.
When to Bet the Spread
1. Heavy Favorite Scenarios
Backing a -300+ favorite? You're paying 8-10%+ vig on the moneyline. The spread at -110 offers half the vig—significant edge preservation over time.
2. Large Margin Expected
If you think the favorite wins by 10+ but the spread is only 6.5, the spread offers a better risk-adjusted bet than paying premium moneyline odds.
3. Underdog Insurance
Getting +7.5 points on an underdog means you win even if they lose by a touchdown. It's insurance—you're betting they stay competitive, not that they pull off the upset.
Real-World Example: Same Game, Different Bets
Scenario: Patriots vs Jets
Moneyline
Patriots -280 | Jets +230
Patriots implied probability: 73.7%Moneyline vig: ~7%
Spread
Patriots -7 (-110) | Jets +7 (-110)
Each side implied: ~52.4%Spread vig: ~4.5%
Analysis:
• If you like the Patriots: the spread offers 2.5% less vig—significant edge over time
• If you think the Jets can win: +230 moneyline has upside vs just getting the 7 points
• If you think Jets stay close but lose: +7 spread is the play
Finding +EV in Both Markets
The best approach isn't choosing one market over the other—it's comparing both to find where the sportsbook made a mistake.
- Compare implied probabilities across bet types
If moneyline implies 70% and spread implies 55%, one market is mispriced
- Shop lines across books for both markets
You might find a +EV spread at one book and +EV moneyline at another
- Use no-vig calculations to find true fair odds
Strip the vig from both sides to see actual probabilities
- Consider key numbers in spread betting
NFL spreads of 3 and 7 hit frequently—know when you're getting or giving a key number
Find +EV Bets in Moneyline and Spread Markets
We scan both markets daily to identify where sportsbooks are offering odds better than true probability. Stop guessing—bet with math on your side.
The Bottom Line
Moneyline vs spread isn't a "which is better" question—it's a "which is better for this specific game" question. Smart bettors:
- Compare both markets for every game
- Understand vig scales with favorite strength on moneylines
- Use spreads for heavy favorites, moneylines for potential upsets
- Shop for the best odds in whichever market offers value
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between moneyline and spread betting?
Moneyline bets are simple wagers on which team wins the game outright. Spread bets add a points margin—the favorite must win by more than the spread, while the underdog can lose by less than the spread (or win) for bettors to cash. Moneyline odds vary widely based on matchup, while spreads typically pay around -110 on both sides.
Is moneyline or spread betting better?
Neither is universally better—it depends on the matchup and odds offered. Moneylines on heavy favorites carry high vig, while spreads often offer better value in lopsided games. Conversely, small underdogs on the moneyline can offer more value than the spread. Smart bettors compare both markets.
When should I bet moneyline vs spread?
Bet moneyline when: (1) you believe the underdog has a real chance to win outright, (2) the favorite's moneyline offers better implied probability than covering a large spread, or (3) you want a simpler bet. Bet spread when: (1) a favorite is likely to win but may not cover a large margin, (2) the -110 standard juice offers better value than expensive moneyline odds.
Why are moneyline favorites so expensive?
Because the probability of winning is higher. A -300 favorite (75% implied probability) should win 3 out of 4 times. The expensive odds reflect this—you risk $300 to win $100. The spread levels the playing field, which is why both sides typically pay similar -110 odds.
Can you combine moneyline and spread in a parlay?
Yes, but be careful about correlation. If you parlay a team's moneyline with them covering the spread, it's a correlated parlay since covering the spread means they won. Some books restrict this, and the payout won't be as high as uncorrelated legs. Same-game parlays allow these combinations with adjusted odds.