A moneyline bet is a straight-up wager on which team will win the game, with no point spread involved. Odds are expressed as positive or negative numbers showing how much you win on a $100 bet (+150) or how much you must risk to win $100 (-150). Moneyline betting is the simplest and most fundamental bet type in sports wagering. It\'s especially popular in lower-scoring sports like baseball, hockey, and soccer where point spreads are less meaningful. Unlike spread bets that adjust for team strength, moneyline odds reflect the pure probability of each team winning, adjusted by the sportsbook\'s margin.
Example
Chiefs are -180, Raiders are +155. Betting $180 on Chiefs wins $100 if they win. Betting $100 on Raiders wins $155 if they win. The favorite (Chiefs) requires risking more because they\'re more likely to win. In a baseball example, the Dodgers might be -140 against the Padres at +120. This is a closer matchup, so the risk-to-reward ratio is more balanced. Notice the gap between -140 and +120 rather than perfectly symmetrical numbers—that difference represents the sportsbook\'s built-in vig. Sharp bettors often focus on underdog moneylines where the potential payout compensates well for the risk.
Common Questions
When should I bet moneyline vs spread?
When should I bet moneyline vs spread?
Bet moneyline when you're confident a team will win outright but unsure about the margin. Underdogs often offer better moneyline value than spread value when they have legitimate upset potential. In lower-scoring sports like hockey and baseball, moneylines are the standard because games are usually decided by 1-2 runs or goals, making point spreads less practical. For football and basketball, spreads are more common since scoring margins vary more widely.
What does a negative moneyline mean?
What does a negative moneyline mean?
A negative number shows how much you must risk to win $100. -200 means risk $200 to win $100. The team is favored, and you're accepting a lower payout because they're more likely to win. The larger the negative number, the heavier the favorite. A -500 favorite means you'd risk $500 to win just $100, indicating the sportsbook gives that team roughly an 83% implied probability of winning. Heavy favorites offer low risk but small returns.
What does a positive moneyline mean?
What does a positive moneyline mean?
A positive number shows how much you win on a $100 bet. +200 means a $100 bet returns $200 in profit plus your original $100 stake if the team wins. Positive moneyline teams are underdogs—the sportsbook considers them less likely to win, so they offer a larger payout to attract action. The larger the positive number, the bigger the underdog. A +500 underdog implies roughly a 17% chance of winning according to the sportsbook's pricing.
How do I convert moneyline odds to implied probability?
How do I convert moneyline odds to implied probability?
For negative odds, divide the absolute value by itself plus 100. For -150: 150 / (150 + 100) = 60%. For positive odds, divide 100 by the odds plus 100. For +200: 100 / (200 + 100) = 33.3%. These implied probabilities include the vig, so the true probabilities are slightly lower. To remove the vig and find the true probability, calculate implied probabilities for both sides and normalize them to sum to 100%. Understanding this conversion is essential for identifying value bets and comparing odds across different sportsbooks effectively.