{
  "note": "Post-hoc, not pre-registered. Requested by the independent review of 2026-11-08.",
  "next_poll": {
    "died_at_next_poll_share": 0.4341,
    "alive_at_next_poll_share_of_flags_with_a_next_poll": 0.5629,
    "part4_reported_alive_at_next_poll": 0.6
  },
  "gaps_min": {
    "median_before_flag": 29.8,
    "median_before_death": 25.0,
    "median_interval_width_died": 55.0
  },
  "cadence_matched_survival": {
    "alive_25_40": {
      "2-24h": {
        "share_alive": 0.494,
        "n": 261
      },
      "<=2h": {
        "share_alive": 0.118,
        "n": 17
      },
      ">24h": {
        "share_alive": 0.375,
        "n": 285
      }
    },
    "alive_55_70": {
      "2-24h": {
        "share_alive": 0.357,
        "n": 258
      },
      "<=2h": {
        "share_alive": 0.0,
        "n": 12
      },
      ">24h": {
        "share_alive": 0.38,
        "n": 400
      }
    },
    "state_25_40": {
      "2-24h": {
        "share_alive": 0.51,
        "n": 261
      },
      "<=2h": {
        "share_alive": 0.118,
        "n": 17
      },
      ">24h": {
        "share_alive": 0.396,
        "n": 285
      }
    },
    "state_both_55_70": {
      "2-24h": {
        "share_alive": 0.366,
        "n": 254
      },
      "<=2h": {
        "share_alive": 0.0,
        "n": 11
      },
      ">24h": {
        "share_alive": 0.289,
        "n": 277
      }
    }
  },
  "sensitivity_drop_games_first_polled_in_archive_first_hour": {
    "games_dropped": 9,
    "flags_dropped": 17,
    "H1": {
      "upper": {
        "median": 60.47,
        "ci": {
          "lo": 60.1,
          "hi": 85.12,
          "nan_resamples": 0
        }
      },
      "lower": {
        "median": 14.75,
        "ci": {
          "lo": 9.73,
          "hi": 25.0,
          "nan_resamples": 0
        }
      }
    },
    "H2": {
      "lower": {
        "diff_far_minus_near": 4.54,
        "ci": {
          "lo": -10.0,
          "hi": 20.18,
          "nan_resamples": 0
        }
      },
      "upper": {
        "diff_far_minus_near": 74.33,
        "ci": {
          "lo": 40.62,
          "hi": 104.84,
          "nan_resamples": 0
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "sensitivity_drop_flags_with_prev_poll_over_120_min_before": {
    "flags_dropped": 18,
    "H1": {
      "upper": {
        "median": 60.25,
        "ci": {
          "lo": 60.07,
          "hi": 79.91,
          "nan_resamples": 0
        }
      },
      "lower": {
        "median": 10.39,
        "ci": {
          "lo": 9.7,
          "hi": 24.72,
          "nan_resamples": 0
        }
      }
    },
    "H2": {
      "lower": {
        "diff_far_minus_near": 4.57,
        "ci": {
          "lo": -10.0,
          "hi": 20.0,
          "nan_resamples": 0
        }
      },
      "upper": {
        "diff_far_minus_near": 65.34,
        "ci": {
          "lo": 40.5,
          "hi": 104.53,
          "nan_resamples": 0
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "h2_far_upper_bound_pileup_at_120_min": 50,
  "h2_far_flags": 423,
  "h2_pileup_died_at_next_poll_after_60_min_gaps": 43,
  "first_poll_lead_time_hours_in_window_games": {
    "median": 31.5,
    "p99": 287.2,
    "max": 316.0,
    "buffer_hours": 168
  },
  "next_poll_died_share_of_flags_with_a_next_poll": 0.4371,
  "near_band_first_minute_where_lower_bound_survival_exceeds_upper": null,
  "died_by_base_rate_on_alive_to_alive_polls": {
    "consensus": 583,
    "book": 153,
    "both": 129,
    "neither": 9717,
    "total": 10582
  },
  "study_games_with_more_than_one_commence_time": 245,
  "study_games": 454,
  "null_ev_rows_in_window": 0
}